It is undoubtedly one of the hottest and most debated topics of this gaming season. We are referring to the upcoming tender for the allocation of online gaming licences. In the draft legislative decree, requested by the Ministry of Economy and drafted by a special commission led by the head of ADM, there are measures that have raised concerns among many operators currently engaged in the online gaming segment.
A particular concern is the entry threshold into the new market that is being defined. The draft indeed specifies an amount of 7 million euros to secure an online licence, with a limit of a maximum of 5 licences per individual group and no limit to the number of licences that can be awarded.
Various estimates have circulated regarding the value of a tender with this type of setup and the number of operators that might participate. Agimeg has had the opportunity to review an analysis of the tender, with reference to the year 2022. This is an analysis from which the parameters that led to the definition of the cost of 7 million euros per licence have been derived.
The 7 million euro cost is to be spread over nine years, thus impacting at 778,000 euros per year. Of the about 90 operators, just under 60 would still have economic availability (at least 500,000 euros) even after paying the 7 million euros, licence fees, and considering an amount relative to management costs, such as technology investments.
At least 50 operators would still have a revenue, after all the above-listed costs, of more than one million euros. About 40 operators, once the costs of purchasing the licence, fees, and various expenses are deducted, would have over 5 million euros left in their coffers per year.
The number drops to just over 30 entities if the economic availability threshold is raised to 10 million euros per year.
With these figures, between 45 and 50 licences could be awarded at a cost of 7 million euros each. In addition to the approximately 40 entities with availability of at least 5 million a year, there would be large operators willing to purchase more than one licence.
It should also be considered that smaller operators may form consortia aimed precisely at participating in the tender. It should also be highlighted that the portion of revenue held by operators who will not participate in the tender will certainly be spread among the active concessionaires. The estimate in this sense is over 60 million euros that would be divided among the winners of the new licences.
The definitive stop to skins, which will no longer be available, has been confirmed. This could lead some operators to purchase more licences in order not to lose the gaming volumes of some large skins that currently have concessionaire-level numbers.
With a scheme like this, between 300 and 350 million euros could end up in the state’s coffers, according to the analysis. sb/AGIMEG
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